!DOCTYPE html> Guikema Research Group

Selected Publications

An * denotes a student or postdoc. who was advised by Dr. Guikema at the time the work was carried out.


Reilly, A.*, A. Samuel, and S.D. Guikema. 2015. "Gaming the system: Decision making by interdependent critical infrastructure," Decision Analysis [Accepted April 2015]

Gelyani, A.M., E.B. Abrahamsen, F. Asche, and S.D. Guikema. 2015. "Some considerations on how often safety critical valves should be tested," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management [Accepted April 2015].

Shortridge, J.*, S. Falconi*, B. Zaitchik, and S.D. Guikema. 2015. "Climate, agriculture, and hunger: Statistical prediction of undernourishment using non-linear regression and data mining techniques," Journal of Applied Statistics [Accepted March 2015].

Nateghi, R.*, S.D. Guikema, Y. Wu*, and B. Bruss*. 2015. "Critical assessment of the foundations of power transmission and distribution reliabitliy metrics and standards," Risk Analysis [Accepted March 2015].

Aven, T. and S.D. Guikema. 2015. "The Concept of Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis [Accepted March 2015]


Staid, A.* and S.D. Guikema. 2014. "Risk analysis for offshore wind farms: The need for an integrated approach," Risk Analysis [Accepted October 2014]. DOI: 10.1111/risa.12324.

Staid, A.*, S.D. Guikema, R. Nateghi, S.M. Quiring, and M. Gao. 2014. "Simulation of tropcial cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Vol. 127, Iss 3-4, pp. 535-546. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1272-3.

S.D. Guikema, R. Nateghi, S.M. Quiring, A. Reilly, and M. Gao. 2014. "Precicting Hurricane Power Outages to Support Storm Response Planning," IEE Access, Vol. 2. DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2014.2365716.

Urquhart, E., B. Zaitchik, S.D. Guikema, B.J. Haley, E. Tayian, A. Chen, M.E. Brown, A. Huq, and R.R. Calwell. 2014. "Use of Environmental Parameters to Model Pathogenic Vibrios in Chesapeake Bay," Journal of Environmental Informatics [Accepted September 2014].

Staid, A.*, P. Pinson, and S.D. Guikema. 2014. "Probabilistic Maximum-Value Wind Prediction for Offshore Environments," Wind Energy. [Accepted June 2014, DOI: 10.1002/we.1787].

LaRocca, S.*, J. Johansson, H. Hassel, and S.D. Guikema. “Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems,” Risk Analysis [accepted July 2014].

LaRocca, S.* and S.D. Guikema, “Characterizing and Predicting the Robustness of Power Law Networks,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety [accepted July 2014].

Anderson, W*, S.D. Guikema, B. Zaitchik, and W. Pan. “Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru” accepted for publication in PLOS One [May 2014].

Nateghi, R.*, S.D. Guikema, S.M. Quiring. “Forecasting Hurricane-Induced Power Outage Durations,” submitted to Natural Hazards [accepted pending minor revisions].

Quiring. S.M., A. Schumacher, and S.D. Guikema. 2014. “Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into Decision Support Applications,” Bulletin of the American Metrological Society, Vol. 95, pp. 47-58.

Urquhart, E., B. Zaitchik, C. Del Castillo, D. Waugh, and S.D. Guikema. “Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: a Chesapeake Bay Case Study,” PLOS ONE [accepted May 2014].

Francis, R., S.D. Guikema, L. Henneman*. “Bayesian Belief Networks for Predicting Drinking Water Distribution System Pipe Breaks,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety [accepted April 2014].

Reilly, A.C.* and S.D.Guikema. “Bayesian Multiscale Modeling of Spatial Infrastructure Performance Predictions,” ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems [accepted April 2014].

Shortridge, J.* and S.D. Guikema. “Public Health and Pipe Breaks in Water Distribution Systems: Analysis with Internet Search Volume as a Proxy,” Water Research [accepted January 2014].


Badr, H., B. Zaitchik, and S.D. Guikema. "Statistical Predictive Models for Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies over Sahel," Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology [Accepted November 2013].

Nateghi, R.*, S.D. Guikema, and S.M. Quiring. "Power Outage Estiamtion for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models," Risk Analysis [Accepted September 2013].

Han, S-R.*, D. Rosowsky, and S.D. Guikema. "Estimating Fragilities for Power Distribution System Poles using Bayesian Methods and Structural Reliability Models," Risk Analysis [Accepted June 2013].

Quiring, S.M., A. Schumacher, and S.D. Guikema. "Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into Decision Support Applications," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society [Accepted May 2013, scheduled for January 2014 publication].

Staid, A.* and S.D. Guikema. "Statistical Analysis of Installed Wind Capacity in the United States," Energy Policy[Accepted May 2013].


Urquhart, E., M.J. Hoffman, B.F. Zaitchik, S.D. Guikema, and E.F. Geiger. 2012. "Remotely Sensed Estiamtes of Surface Salinity in the Chesapeake Bay," Remote Sensing of the Environment, Vol. 23, pp. 522-531.

Yu, O-Y., A. Medina-Centina, S.D. Guikema, J-L. Briaud, and D. Burnett. 2012. "Integrated Approach for the Optimal Selection of Environmentally Friendly Drilling Systems," International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 25 DOI: 10.118/2251-6832-3-25 (Open Source)

Samuel, A. and S.D. Guikema. 2012. "Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing With the Team Effect," Decision Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 238-252.

Yu, O.-Y., S.D. Guikema, J.-L. Briaud, and D. Burnett. 2012. “Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-Attribute System Selection Problems in Onshore Environmentally Friendly Drilling (EFD)”, INCOSE Journal of Systems Engineering, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 153-171.

Guikema, S.D. and S.M. Quiring. 2012. “Hybrid Data Mining-Regression for Infrastructure Risk Assessment Based on Zero-Inflated Data,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 99, pp. 178-182.

Lord, D. and S.D. Guikema, 2012. “The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Model for Analyzing Crash Data,” peer-reviewed commentary, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 122-127.

McLay, L, C. Rothschild, and S.D. Guikema, 2012. “Robust Adversarial Risk Analysis: A Level-k Approach,” Decision Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 41-54.

S.D. Guikema. 2012. “Modeling Intelligent Adversaries for Terrorism Risk Assessment: Some Necessary Conditions for Adversary Models,” Risk Analysis, [in press, published on-line December 2011. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01737.x].

Rothschild, C., L. McLay, and S.D. Guikema. 2012. “Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A Level-k Approach,” Risk Analysis [in press, published on-line October 2011, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01701.x].

Francis, R.*, S.D. Guikema, D. Lord, S. Geedipally, and S. LaRocca. 2012. “Characterizing the Performance of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson Generalized Linear Model,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 167-183.


Aven, T. and S.D. Guikema. 2011. “Whose uncertainty assessment (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts’ or the experts?” Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 96, No. 10, pp. 1257-1262.

Nateghi, R*, S.D. Guikema, and S.M. Quiring. 2011. “Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations During Hurricanes,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 12, pp. 1897-1906.

Cho*, H., F. Olivera, and S.D. Guikema. 2011. "Enhanced Speciation in Particle Swarm Optimization for Multi-Modal Problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 213, No. 1, pp. 15-23.

Quiring, S.M., L. Zhu, and S.D. Guikema. 2011. “Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages” Natural Hazards, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 365-390.

Yu O.K., S.G. Guikema, J.L. Briaud, and D. Burnett. 2011. “Quantitative decision tools for system selection in environmentally friendly drilling,” Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2010.543280

Francis*, R., S. Falconi*, R. Nateghi*, and S.D. Guikema. 2011. “Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments,” Climatic Change. Vol. 106, No. 1 (2011), Page 31-55. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-0001-9.


Lord, D., S.R. Geedipally, and S.D. Guikema. 2010. “Extension of the Application of Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 8, pp. 1268-1276.

Guikema, S.D., S.R. Han, S.M. Quiring. 2010. “Pre-Storm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 12, pp. 1744-1752.

Guikema, S.D., T. Aven. 2010. “Using ALARP for Terrorist Risk Analysis,” Reliability Engineering & Systems Safety, Vol. 95, No. 8, pp. 823-827.

Booker, G., A. Sprintson, E. Zechman, C. Singh, and S. Guikema. 2010. “Efficient Traffic Loss Evaluation for Transport Backbone Networks,” Computer Networks, Vol. 54, No. 10, pp. 1683-1691.

Guikema, S.D. and T. Aven. 2010. "Assessing Risk from Intelligent Attacks: A Perspective on Approaches." Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 95, No. 5, pp. 478-483.

Booker, G., J. Torres*, S.D. Guikema, A. Sprintson, and K. Brumbelow. 2010. “Estimating Cellular Network Performance During Hurricanes,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Vol. 95, No. 4, pp. 337-344.


Han, S.-R.*, S.D. Guikema, and S.M. Quiring. 2009. “Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts using Generalized Additive Models,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 10, pp. 1443-1453.

Guikema, S.D. and J.P. Coffelt*. 2009. “Modeling Count Data for Non-Linear, Complex Infrastructure Systems,” ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 172-178.

Guikema, S.D. and P. Gardoni. 2009. Reliability estimation for networks of reinforced concrete bridges, ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 61-69.

Sanchez-Silva, M., D. Rosowsky, and S.D. Guikema. 2009. “Decision-Based Optimization Model for Design and Operation of Transportation Networks in Seismic Regions,” Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 70-79.

Guikema, S.D. 2009. “Sustainability and Resilience in Infrastructure Design and Management in Disaster Prone Regions,” Science, Vol. 323, No. 5919, pp. 1302. Perspectives Paper.

Torres, J.*, K. Brumbelow, S.D. Guikema. 2009. “Classification and Uncertainty Propagation for Virtual Water Distribution Systems,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 94, No. 8, pp. 1259-1273.

Cho*, H., F. Olivera, and S.D. Guikema. 2009. "A Derivation of the Number of Minima of the Griwank Function," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Vol. 204, No. 2, pp. 694-701.

Imbeah, W.* and S.D. Guikema. 2009. “Construction Risk Analysis Using the Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis Model (APRAM),” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 135, No. 8, pp. 772-781.

Guikema, S.D. 2009. "Natural Disaster Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Systems: An Approach Based on Statistical Learning Theory." Reliability Engineering and System Safety. Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 855-860.

Yamijala, S.*, S.D. Guikema, and K. Brumbelow. 2009. “Statistical Estimation of Water Distribution System Pipe Reliability,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 282-293.

Han, S.*, S.D. Guikema, S.M. Quiring, K. Lee, D. Rosowsky, and R.A. Davidson. 2009. “Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Power Outages during Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast Region,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 199-210.