Hurricane Dorian Power Outage Forecasts

Important note: We will not be issuing further updates to our Hurricane Dorian power outage forecast unless the track substantially changes. The forecast below was made as Doria was off the coast of South Carolina, and it represents our final forecast. The track has remained fairly stable over North Carolina.

The most recent power outage forecast for Hurricane Dorian is given below. This is current as of the time and date on the figure. The time is given in UTC. Subtract 4 hours to get back to the time in the eastern U.S. time zone. Note that our predictions are originally made in terms of fraction of the population without power and then converted to customer meters without power using an approximate conversion. Please go to nhc.noaa.gov for details on the storm and the currently active storm warnings and advisories.


Our model predicts the fraction of the population (people) without power. Utilities report the number of customers (meters) without power. Our past research has found that in Florida there are approximately 2-3 people per meter on average across the area. To compare our predictions with what utilities end up reporting, use the customer number estimate on the graphic, not the population estimate.

NOTE: There is high uncertainty in the track of Dorian at this point. We are presenting the model run results for only the NHC Official track. If the storm stays further offshore, impacts will be substantially reduced. We have run some of those scenarios as well, and the proximity of the track to shore makes a large different in the degree of impacts as would be expected.


This page contains the power outage forecasts from the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Power Outage Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema, et al. The paper describing it, Predicting Hurricane Power Outages to Support Storm Response Planning, IEEE Access, 2014, is available (open access) here. This was joint work with Professor Steven Quiring and previous members of the Guikema research group. These are experimenal results, not a fully operational forecasting model. This model takes as input track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and estiamtes the fraction of the popualtion without power at the census tract level.

Note that a known issue with this model is that it overestimates the fraction of customers without power in areas with very low population densities such as the Everglades and less developed areas west of Miami.

This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and private utilities.


A note for reporters, utilities, and government agencies wishing to ask questions about the model. You can reach either Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring by phone or email with questions. Thir contact information is:
Seth Guikema: (734)369-2469, sguikema@umich.edu
Steven Quiring: (614)247-8222, quiring.10@osu.edu
The best way to reach us is to email both Seth and Steven, and one of us will get back to you as soon as we can.

These outage estimates are provided for informational purposes only and are the product of a research project at the collaborating institutions. The information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. The investigators and their universities do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained on this website. The information and graphics on this web page cannot be reproduced without explicit consent of either Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring. ⁃ ß