Important note: We will not be issuing further updates to our Hurricane Dorian power outage forecast unless the track substantially changes. The forecast below was made as Doria was off the coast of South Carolina, and it represents our final forecast. The track has remained fairly stable over North Carolina.
The most recent power outage forecast for Hurricane Dorian is given below. This is current as of the time and date on the figure. The time is given in UTC. Subtract 4 hours to get back to the time in the eastern U.S. time zone. Note that our predictions are originally made in terms of fraction of the population without power and then converted to customer meters without power using an approximate conversion. Please go to nhc.noaa.gov for details on the storm and the currently active storm warnings and advisories.
This page contains the power outage forecasts from the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Power Outage Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema, et al. The paper describing it,
Predicting Hurricane Power Outages to Support Storm Response Planning, IEEE Access, 2014, is available (open access) here. This was joint work with Professor Steven Quiring and previous members of the Guikema research group.
These are experimenal results, not a fully operational forecasting model. This model takes as input track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and estiamtes the fraction of the popualtion without power at the census tract level.
Note that a known issue with this model is that it overestimates the fraction of customers without power in areas with very low population densities such as the Everglades and less developed areas west of Miami.
This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and private utilities.