Modeling and Analysis to Foster Societal Safety and Sustainability in a Changing World

Guikema Research Group, University of Michigan

Who Are We?

The Guikema research group consists of Dr. Seth Guikema and a group of postdoctoral researchers and Ph.D., masters, and undergraduate students. The group currently consists of 3 postdoctral researchers, 6 Ph.D. students (5 at Michigan and one in Norway). Our research is focused on and grounded in risk analysis, statistical learning theory, Bayesian probability, stochastic simulation, decision analysis, and agent-based modeling. We focus on issues related to climate adaptation and the sustainabiltiy of cities and infrastructure, disaster risk analysis, critical infrastructure modeling, natural hazards, and terrorism risk. Our work is a mix of developing and testing new methods and applying methods to better understand problems of societal importance. Much of what we do is strongly interdisciplinary. The information in this web page should help to give a better picture of what we do. Contact one of us if you have questions or would like more information!

Selected News

August 2017A paper titled "A comparison of methods for assessing power output in non-uniform onshore wind farms" co-authored by Andrea Staid (former PhD student in the group, now at Sandia National Lab), Claire VerHulst (West Point Military Academy), and Seth Guikema was accepted for publication in Wind Energy. This paper develops, compares and validates models for predicting output from wind farms as a function of incident wind conditions.

August 2017 Welcome to Valerie Washington and Anna White who joined the group as PhD students this summer!

August 2017 A paper titled "Evolution of Vulnerability of Communities Facing Repeated Hazards" was accepted for publication in PLOS One. This paper is part of the NSF-funded Hazard SEES project in the group, and it focuses on developing an agent-based model for examining how vulnerability to natural hazards evolves over time due to behavioral responses to hazard events and policies. The paper was co-authored with Allison Reilly (UMD - lead author), Tak Igusa (JHU), and Laiyin Zhu (Western Michigan U), and Seth Guikema.

August 2017A paper titled "Hurricanes and Power System Reliability-The Effects of Individual Decisions and System-Level Hardening" was accepted for publication as an Invited Paper in Proceedings of the IEEE. This paper was co-authored with Allison Reilly (UMD), Gina Tonn (UPenn), Chenwei Zhai (PhD student, Guikema group), and Seth Guikema. This paper uses an ABM to show indidual response to repeated outages can lead to reductions in collective action to harden a power system to weather-related outages.